Legislative Update, October 3, 2022

Legislative Update, October 3, 2022

The General Election is November 8!

 

The General Election will be held on Tuesday, November 8. A list of all candidates on the ballot in Delaware can be found at https://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/genl_fcddt_2022.shtml..

 

President Biden Signs Continuing Resolution Funding Federal Government Until December 16

 

This past Friday (September 30), President Biden signed a continuing resolution to avert a government shutdown and fund the government until December 16. The Senate passed the continuing resolution by a vote of 72 – 25 on Thursday after Senator Joe Manchin (D-West Virginia) relented on his energy permitting proposal, which did not have the votes. The House passed the resolution by a vote of 230 -201 on Friday afternoon (10 Republicans voted with the Democrats to pass it).

 

The continuing resolution will extend FY 2022 funding levels through December 16. FY 2023 began on October 1.  The legislation also included an additional $12.4 billion in military and diplomatic spending to aid Ukraine and another $18.8 billion for domestic recovery efforts relating to wildfires in the western states, hurricanes, and recent flooding in Kentucky.

 

Following the midterm elections, in November, Congress will return to debate for the full fiscal year, which runs until September 30, 2023.

 

Data on U.S. House and Senate Mid-Term Elections

Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Delaware, At Large) is being challenged by Republican, Lee Murphy.  Statewide, as of September 1, the voter registration totals are as follows.: 362,002 Democrats, 209,358 Republicans, 171,136 Unaffiliated, 18,292 Other/Third Party.

 

As for the rest of the Congressional races on the ballot this year, there is a substantial likelihood that the U.S. House will shift to a Republican majority.  All House seats are on the ballot in the various states. Real Clear Politics (which aggregates leading polls and analyzes races) indicates the following:  

  • For the Democrats, there are 184 seats which fall into the categories of “safe” (148), “Likely Dem” (20) or “Leans Dem” (15). They project the Dems flipping CA 25 in the “Likely Dem” column and TX 34 in the “Leans Dem” column.  
  • For Republicans, they place 179 seats in the “safe” column, 17 in the Likely GOP” column, and 22 in the “Leans GOP” column. They project that the Republicans could flip 17 current Democratic seats, with of those in the “Likely GOP” column and 12 in the “Leans GOP” column. 
  • There are 32 seats which are current classed as “Toss-Ups.” Among the “Toss-Ups” are 26 current Democratic seats and current Republican seats.  The threshold to secure a majority is 218 seats out of 435.  

 

Given the data above, the Republicans appear to have the substantial advantage. An aggregate of polling data as of the close of last week indicates that the in the Generic Congressional Ballot, Republicans lead by 1.0 points. When correcting for the likely margin of error, that number is not a meaningful indicator. Additionally, House races are very local and impacted by how district lines were drawn (most often by state legislatures). This is the first election following the decennial census, so House districts have been redrawn since 2020. 

 

In the United States Senate, as in every congressional election year, one-third of the Senate is on the ballot. While there is a path to Democrats maintaining their majority, which currently stands at 50-50 with Vice President Harris as the tie-breaking vote, there is a reasonable chance that Republicans will take the majority.  Real Clear Politics indicates the following for the Senate: 

 

  • For Democrats, there are 42 seats which are either “Safe” or not on the ballot.  RCP places seats in the “Likely Dem” column, with more in the “Leans Dem” category for a total of 46. 
  • For Republicans, there are 44 seats which are “Safe” or not on the ballot. RCP places in the “Likely GOP” column and in the “Leans GOP” category, for a total of 47.  
  • RCP places seats in the “Toss-Up” category. In that group are (*=incumbent, polling data an aggregated based on leading polls):
    • Arizona, Mark Kelly (D)* vs. Blake Masters (R) (Currently Dem), Kelly +4.0 (9/14 - 9/26)
    • Georgia, Raphael Warnock (D)* vs. Herschel Walker (R) (Currently Dem) Warnock +0.7 (8/24-9/26)
    • New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan (D)* vs. Don Bolduc (Currently Dem) Hassan +9.3 (9/14 - 9/26)
    • North Carolina, Ted Budd (R) vs. Cheri Beasley (D) (Open Seat, Currently Republican) Budd +1.6 (8/29-9/26)
    • Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)* vs. Adam Laxalt (R) (Currently Dem) Laxalt +2.2 (9/8 - 9/29)
    • Pennsylvania, John Fetterman (D) vs. Mehmet Oz (R) (Open Seat, Currently Republican) Fetterman +4.1 (8/20 – 9/26)
    • Wisconsin, Ron Johnson (R)* vs. Mandela Barnes (D) (Currently Republican), Johnson +2.3 (9/6 – 9/27)

 

Presidential Approval Rating Data (aggregated):

 

  • Presidential Biden Job Approval (9/1-9/27):   42.1% Approve,    53.3% Disapprove,   -11.3% Spread
  • Direction of the Country (9/6-9/27):             26.8% Right Direction,  65.9% Wrong Track, -39.1% Spread
  • Biden Job Approval on Economy :                   37.7% Approve, 59.2% Disapprove, -21.5% Spread
  • Biden Job Approval on Foreign Policy :           40.8% Approve,   53.6% Disapprove, -12.8% Spread
  • Biden Job Approval on Inflation (9/7 – 9/25):               31.7% Approve,   65% Disapprove, -33.3% Spread
  • Biden Job Approval on Immigration (9/7 – 9/27):         34.3% Approve, 59.3% Disapprove, -25% Spread
  • Biden Job Approval on Russia/Ukraine (7/14 – 8/26):       41.5% Approve, 51.8% Disapprove, -10.3% Spread
  • Biden Job Approval on Crime (9/7-9/25):          36.3% Approve, 57.3% Disapprove, -19.0 Spread         

 

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