Legislative Update, October 10, 2022

The General Election is November 8! 

The General Election will be held on Tuesday, November 8. A list of all candidates on the ballot in Delaware can be found at https://elections.delaware.gov/services/candidate/genl_fcddt_2022.shtml.. 

• Early voting is available this year. Should you choose to vote early, there are sites in all three counties. Early voting begins on Friday, October 28. Information on early voting locations and hours can be found at https://elections.delaware.gov/information/elections/votinglocations.shtml#ev-sites.
• If you choose to vote at the polls on election day, you can look up your polling place at the following link https://ivote.de.gov/VoterView.
• Information on voting by absentee ballot can be found at https://elections.delaware.gov/services/voter/absentee/index.shtml
• Contact information for the Department of Elections in Dover, and in all three counties, can be found at https://elections.delaware.gov/locations.shtml. 

Data on U.S. House and Senate Mid-Term Elections

Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Delaware, At Large) is being challenged by Republican, Lee Murphy.  Statewide, as of September 1, the voter registration totals are as follows.: 362,002 Democrats, 209,358 Republicans, 171,136 Unaffiliated, 18,292 Other/Third Party.

As for the rest of the Congressional races on the ballot this year, there is a substantial likelihood that the U.S. House will shift to a Republican majority.  All House seats are on the ballot in the various states. Real Clear Politics (which aggregates leading polls and analyzes races) indicates the following:  

• For the Democrats, there are 180 seats which fall into the categories of “safe” (147), “Likely Dem” (20) or “Leans Dem” (13). They project the Dems flipping CA 25 in the “Likely Dem” column.
• For Republicans, they place 220 seats in the categories of “safe” (179), “Likely GOP” (7), or 22 “Leans GOP” (15). They project that the Republicans could flip 17 current Democratic seats, with 5 of those in the “Likely GOP” column and 12 in the “Leans GOP” column. 
• There are 35 seats which are current classed as “Toss-Ups.” Among the “Toss-Ups” are 29 current Democratic seats and 6 current Republican seats.  The threshold to secure a majority is 218 seats out of 435.  

Given the data above, the Republicans appear to have the substantial advantage. An aggregate of polling data as of the close of last week indicates that the in the Generic Congressional Ballot, Republicans lead by 0.9 points. House races are very local and impacted by how district lines were drawn (most often by state legislatures). This is the first election following the decennial census, so House districts have been redrawn since 2020. 

In the United States Senate, as in every congressional election year, one-third of the Senate is on the ballot. While there is a path to Democrats maintaining their majority, which currently stands at 50-50 with Vice President Harris as the tie-breaking vote, there is a reasonable chance that Republicans will take the majority.  Real Clear Politics indicates the following for the Senate: 

• For Democrats, there are 42 seats which are either “Safe” or not on the ballot.  RCP places 2 seats in the “Likely Dem” column, with 2 more in the “Leans Dem” category for a total of 46. 
• For Republicans, there are 44 seats which are “Safe” or not on the ballot. RCP places 1 in the “Likely GOP” column and 2 in the “Leans GOP” category, for a total of 47.  
• RCP places 7 seats in the “Toss-Up” category. In that group are (*=incumbent, polling data an aggregated based on leading polls):
  • Arizona, Mark Kelly (D)* vs. Blake Masters (R) (Currently Dem), Kelly +4.1 (9/14 – 10/4)
  • Georgia, Raphael Warnock (D)* vs. Herschel Walker (R) (Currently Dem) Warnock +3.8 (9/12-10/4)
  • New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan (D)* vs. Don Bolduc (Currently Dem) Hassan +5.3 (9/23-9/30)
  • North Carolina, Ted Budd (R) vs. Cheri Beasley (D) (Open Seat, Currently Republican) Budd +1.2 (8/29-10/2)
  • Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)* vs. Adam Laxalt (R) (Currently Dem) Laxalt +2.1 (9/8 – 10/2)
  • Pennsylvania, John Fetterman (D) vs. Mehmet Oz (R) (Open Seat, Currently Republican) Fetterman +3.7 (9/22 – 9/30)
  • Wisconsin, Ron Johnson (R)* vs. Mandela Barnes (D) (Currently Republican), Johnson +2.7 (9/15 – 10/6)

Presidential Approval Rating Data (aggregated):

• Presidential Biden Job Approval (9/21-10/9):   43.1% Approve,    53.5% Disapprove,   -10.4% Spread
• Direction of the Country (9/6-9/27):             27.4% Right Direction,  66.1% Wrong Track, -38.7% Spread
• Biden Job Approval on Economy (9/7-10/3):   37.8% Approve, 59.0% Disapprove, -21.2% Spread
• Biden Job Approval on Foreign Policy (9/7-10/3):           41.2% Approve,   53.2% Disapprove, -12% Spread
• Biden Job Approval on Inflation (9/7 – 9/27):               31.7% Approve,   65% Disapprove, -33.3% Spread
• Biden Job Approval on Immigration (9/7 – 9/27):         34.3% Approve, 59.3% Disapprove, -25% Spread